The Los Angeles Dodgers boast MLB's best record at 29-10 and are on a streak of five straight wins entering Friday's NL West duel versus the Colorado Rockies.
It seems inevitable that almost two-thirds through the 2020 campaign, L.A. will win the division crown for the eighth consecutive year. Meanwhile, Colorado is clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot in the National League with an 18-19 record.
Keep reading for the rest of Insights' preview, which has key stats to help your betting tactics, analysis of the main lines and how they ought to trend, and the best odds available.
Date: Friday, September 4
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet Rocky Mountain; SportsNet Los Angeles
Implied Probabilities: Rockies 32%; Dodgers 70%
Spread: COL +1.5 (+110); LAD -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: COL +210; LAD -238
Dodgers starter Dustin May hasn't had much good fortune this year despite how electric he's been. With a 2.83 ERA, May has only a 1-1 record in seven starts due to lackluster run support, but he almost always gives L.A. a chance to win.
Antonio Senzatela will be on the bump for Colorado. The 25-year-old is showing easily his best MLB form to date, bouncing back from a rough few years to post a 3.32 ERA and 3-1 mark across seven starting efforts.
.213 vs. .161: Whereas L.A. trails only San Diego in isolated power — or average extra bases per at bat — the Rockies rank 23rd out of 30 MLB teams in this category despite often benefiting from the higher altitude at Coors Field.
2.5 vs. 1.2: An area where the Dodgers rank third in MLB is their relief pitchers' Wins Above Replacement total, per FanGraphs. At least Colorado isn't shabby in that department despite a tradition of pitching struggles, ranking 11th in baseball.
50.1 vs. 36.9: A key difference between these bullpens is the hard hit percentages they allow. Once again, L.A. has the edge here, and it's a big one. The Rockies' total is MLB's highest, while that of the Dodgers is fifth-lowest.
The Dodgers have won 10 of their past 11 overall against Colorado, including a three-game sweep last month. That set accounted for almost half of the Rockies' seven road losses, though, as they've posted a rather impressive 9-7 mark away from Denver in 2020.
But facing an adversary with the clear talent edge in a park where wins are hard to come by for anyone, Colorado isn't exactly in a great position here. Plus, there's far more pressure on the Rockies to stay relevant in the playoff chase, because L.A. is 5.5 games up on Atlanta for the NL pennant.
That type of desperation could be the fuel Colorado needs to come out on top. However, the most recent memory of a trip to Dodger Stadium isn't a good one, as the hosts roared to an 11-3 rout on August 23. The Rockies also got lit up recently by San Francisco to the tune of a 23-5 loss.
Colorado's last defeat at the Dodgers' hands marked the end to a horrid slide where the club lost seven in a row — and Senzatela got lit up for six runs and four homers in 5.1 innings. All this came not long after the Rockies shocked many baseball experts by storming out of the gates to an 11-3 start.
It's been much the opposite for the Blue Crew, who've gone 18-3 over their last 21 fixtures. When May last faced Colorado, he yielded only two hits and one run in five innings of work. Not helping the Rockies' cause is the fact that their bullpen tends to draw potent contact, which, odds are, the home team will take advantage of.
There aren't many scenarios save for a parlay in which the Dodgers winning outright is the right call to bet, so expect more action on the Rockies' moneyline since it pays out far better. It's telling Colorado is plus-money to cover, and Los Angeles' spread has good odds, which should account for the majority of bets on that line.
This run total feels right, because there are tons of talented bats in both lineups, albeit more on the Dodgers' side. Despite the starting pitching talent, look for more bettors to wager on the Over.
Note: Odds current as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Friday, September 4.
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