The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will meet on Tuesday for the second time in a four-game series as the division rivals vie for position in a tight NL West race.
After Monday's 2-1 victory over L.A., San Diego pulled to within one game of the Dodgers for second in the West, but still sits 1.5 back of division leader Colorado. Amid this shortened MLB season, series like this one weight even more than usual.
In abe Insights' betting preview, you'll find advanced statistics to help you as you assess how to bet on this game, along with analysis of how the main wagers should trend, and the best odds available upon publication.
Date: Tuesday, August 11
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports San Diego; SportsNet Los Angeles
Implied Probabilities: Padres 41%; Dodgers 60%
Spread: SD +1.5 (-145); LAD -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline: SD +145; LAD -148
Dodgers star shortstop Corey Seager has been dealing with a back injury of late. It's kept him out of the past three contests, so if he can return for L.A., it'd be a big boost to the batting order and its infield defense.
As for the probable pitchers, the Padres will send Garrett Richards out to face the Dodgers' Ross Stripling, who's posted a 3-0 record in 2020 despite only a passable 4.00 ERA. If Stripling gets similar run support tonight, San Diego may have a hard time keeping up.
4.64 vs. 3.37: This isn't a good area for San Diego's relief pitchers to have a higher total: Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. That is, removing defense from the equation and essentially isolating how good the bullpen is. The Padres' rank is 21st out of 30 teams, while LA's is second only to Oakland.
.228 vs. .203: The Pads are tops in the MLB when it comes to isolated power, which measures the average number of extra bases per at bat. Los Angeles is no slouch here, however, ranking tied for third with the Yankees.
20 vs. 4: Much simpler stuff here, but a glaring discrepancy. San Diego leads MLB in stolen bases, and the Dodgers have only four swiped bags all year. In other words, the Padres are as capable as any club of manufacturing runs on the basepaths against LA's elite bullpen.
After just knocking off the Padres two of three times in San Diego to begin the month of August, Los Angeles is definitely seeing a lot of its intrastate adversary, even more than usual.
While the Dodgers have been dominant amid a run of seven consecutive division titles, there are signs this year that the gap is closing. Yes, the Rockies have been something of a surprise, but there's legitimate talent on this Padres club, and they nearly took the last series from L.A., seeing a late rally come up just shy.
Now Tuesday's visitors have some momentum after keeping the Dodgers' incredible batting order in check. It's a discouraging recent trend for the Boys in Blue, who were no-hit by the Giants' Johnny Cueto into the sixth inning over the weekend. Granted, not having Seager's big bat to help the cause is a significant detriment.
Speaking of shortstops with big bats, how about Padres prodigy Fernando Tatis Jr.? If you extrapolate his current pace on a 162-game trajectory, Tatis would be on track for 76 home runs and 172 RBI. The 21-year-old is just scratching the surface of his potential, and he's picked up the slack as Manny Machado (.215 average) works to find his All-Star form.
Oddsmakers seem to be counting on the Dodgers to bounce back after losing two of three, and given their big brand, popularity and overall talent superiority, sentiment bias is likely to push more action on Los Angeles' moneyline and spread.
But the Padres' run line and moneyline are both fine hedge options regardless of which bet anyone would place to favor the Dodgers. As for the run total, look for the recency bias from Monday's meager total of three to generate greater public sentiment for the Over.
Note: Odds current as of 11:35 a.m. ET on Tuesday, August 11.
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