The San Diego Padres won the first of their three-game interleague series against the Oakland Athletics, so the hosts will look to bounce back and even the score in Saturday's matchup.
Rust was apparent for Oakland last night amid a 7-0 loss. It was the A's first contest since August 29, as they had to postpone their series with Seattle after a positive COVID-19 test within their organization. Can they rebound in short order against a formidable opponent?
Continue reading abe Insights' betting preview, which features key stats, analysis of the main lines and the best available odds across the major sportsbooks.
Date: Saturday, September 5
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: Fox Sports 1
Implied Probabilities: Padres 49%; Athletics 52%
Spread: SD -1.5 (+175); OAK -1.5 (+176)
Moneyline: SD +102; OAK -110
The Padres have overhauled their roster since the MLB trade deadline, aggressively pursuing upgrades in multiple areas while keeping their young core intact. It'll be interesting to see how their chemistry develops, particularly against a quality opponent.
As for Saturday's starting pitchers, San Diego's Chris Paddack will go up against Sean Manaea. Paddack is only 24 years of age and has seen his ERA balloon to 4.43 from his solid rookie year of 3.33 in 26 starts. Manaea started the season badly but has rebounded with only two earned runs allowed in his past 10.1 innings.
41.4 vs. 34.7: The A's hit MLB's highest percentage of fly balls, whereas the Padres rank 19th in this stat. San Diego has the edge in hard hit percentage 46.3% to 43.3%, but both clubs are in the top five in that area. All this to say, Oakland has had some hard luck, with plenty of balls hit fairly deep, but not leaving the yard.
121 vs. 102: Despite these lineups both boasting plenty of big bats, San Diego has the decided advantage in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). The A's are at just 15th this year following a 2019 campaign in which they ranked fifth in the category.
7.0 vs. 5.5: Despite ranking fourth and sixth respectively in relievers' Wins Above Replacement on FanGraphs, Oakland has a considerable edge here. Both bullpens will be put to the test on their later trips through these high-caliber batting orders.
All the data above suggests the A's are still plenty dangerous at hitting homers in bunches, albeit not as much as last season, when Oakland ranked fifth in homers at 257. That total was behind only the historic numbers put up by the Twins and Yankees, the sign-stealing Astros and the absolutely stacked Dodgers.
The Pads are the new power kings of MLB at the minute, although their offense experienced a brief slump before awakening in a big way on Friday. They were shut out in newly acquired ace Mike Clevinger's debut 2-0 versus the lowly Angels, and couldn't get on the board for the first four innings against Oakland.
That changed in short order, as San Diego surged for a four-run fifth inning, and superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado hit back-to-back jacks in the seventh to put the game out of reach. Beyond all the trades the Pads made, they called up top catcher prospect Luis Campusano, who responded with a solo shot in his MLB debut.
In the last 15 days, Machado is batting .426 (23-for-54) with six homers and 16 RBI. Tatis is tied with Mike Trout for the MLB lead in home runs at 14. Even Trent Grisham is coming out of a troublesome stretch of hitting — and he's dangerous even at No. 9 in the Padres batting order.
With the A's still acclimating their way back to the field and batting a meager .222 as a team, it's hard to envision them seizing back the momentum, even at home. Plus, the Astros are only two games back in the AL West, which adds even more pressure on Oakland.
Both starting pitchers are brimming with potential and can shut down even the most dangerous hitters on any given day. However, the A's have nowhere to go but up from Friday's shutout and nothing seems to slow down San Diego, so look for wagers on the run total to favor the Over.
Regarding the spread and moneyline, some sportsbooks are offering the A's run line, and some are going with the Padres. It's not a bad idea to create multiple accounts and hedge those bets, but in terms of how action should trend, look for the betting public to side with San Diego's spread and moneyline.
Note: Odds current as of 10:35 a.m. ET on Saturday, September 5.
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