The New York Yankees have been reeling of late, collapsing out of first place in the AL East as they try to find their footing in a Subway Series with the inner-city rival Mets.
While the Kings of Queens haven't exactly had a poster season, they're getting the better of the Yanks thus far. A doubleheader sweep on Friday preceded yesterday's 2-1 Yankees win, which snapped a seven-game losing streak. Sunday's play is a double feature as well.
In abe Insights' preview, you'll find a breakdown of the main betting lines, the best odds across all major sportsbooks, stats for both clubs that should pertain to Sunday's outcomes and more to help you in assessing prospective wagers.
Date: Sunday, August 30
Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: TBS (Game 2 is at 4:05 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
Implied Probabilities: Mets 54%; Yankees 49%
Spread: NYM -1.5 (+170); NYY +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: NYM -120; NYY +104
Injuries unfortunately continue to plague Yankees superstars Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, who are on the IL with calf and hamstring injuries respectively. Stanton played only 18 games in 2019, and Judge missed 54, so it's a discouraging trend for the Bronx Bombers.
As for the pitching matchup, well, at least the road team's fanbase shouldn't be super enthused in Game 1. Mets veteran Rick Porcello takes the mound against young Yanks dealer Michael King. Porcello's ERA is well north of six, and he probably won't last long before ceding control to the bullpen.
4.14 vs. 4.25: The Mets bullpen has been a frequent source of disappointment in the past season-plus. That's not been the case lately, as they're seventh in MLB in Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, which is the first number, followed by the Yankees' total, which still ranks in the top 10.
.346 vs. .342: In a rather surprising development, the Mets have also pulled just ahead of the Yanks for third place among all teams in weighted on-base average. It's a testament to how resilient Sunday's visitors have been at the dish, and with an improving bullpen, it's proven to be key to a winning combination of late.
.338 vs. .271: Mets starters, however, have had some tough luck, yielding baseball's highest batting average on balls in play this season. Meanwhile, the Yanks give up the eighth-lowest BABIP total. Alas, this figure stands to balloon in Sunday's Game 1 with King on the hill.
Bad news for Mets betting enthusiasts, which of course, the diehards know: Porcello hasn't been any good. He has a 1.64 WHIP, and is very far removed from being a 22-game winner for Boston in 2016, leaving the Red Sox after posting a 5.52 ERA in 32 starts last year.
Porcello's pitches are primarily a sinking fastball and slider. His sinker tends not to really, um, sink effectively — and hits the very low 90s on the radar gun, per FanGraphs. All Porcello can really take solace in is the fact that the Yankees are so beat up right now.
Beyond Judge and Stanton being out for the Pinstripes, shortstop Gleyber Torres, who manager Aaron Boone said could miss up to six weeks, per the New York Post's Zach Braziller. Saturday's close win provided a brief reprieve, yet Boone has his work cut out to get his club over the regular-season finish line and into the playoffs.
It was rather confusing to discern who was starting on the mound for the Yankees between Michael King and Deivi Garcia, because they were announced Saturday as starters. Garcia will be making his MLB debut in the second leg of the doubleheader, while King gets the nod for this second career start.
With only seven innings to play, there isn't a lot of time for the either offense to get going. Judge and Stanton aren't emerging from the Yanks dugout either, yet expect wagers to favor the Over run total due to the bad pitching duel.
As for the spread and moneyline, Yankee Stadium loses some of its mystique and home-field advantage sans fans. Bettors are nevertheless likely to buck the trend, with the majority betting on the supremely popular Yankees' spread and moneyline.
Note: Odds current as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, August 30.
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